Mugihe amakimbirane hagati ya Ukraine n'Uburusiya akomeza, igiciro cy'ingamu y'isi idasanzwe izazamuka.

Icyongereza: Abizeri Shaikhmahmud, ubushishozi buzaza

Mu gihe ikibazo cyo gutanga ibicuruzwa cyatewe n'icyorezo cya Covid-19, umuryango mpuzamahanga wagaruwe mu ntambara yo mu Burusiya-Ukraine. Mu rwego rwo kuzamuka kw'ibiciro nk'ibyifuzo bikomeye, iyi ndwara irashobora kurenga ibiciro bya lisansi, harimo imirima yinganda nkifumbire, ibiryo nibishya.

Kuva muri zahabu kugeza kuri Palladium, inganda zidasanzwe z'isi mu bihugu byombi ndetse n'isi irashobora guhura n'ikirere kibi. Uburusiya bushobora guhura nigitutu kinini cyo guhura na 45% byamasoko ya palladium yisi yose, kubera ko inganda zisanzwe mubibazo kandi icyifuzo kirenze ibyo bitangwa. Byongeye kandi, kubera ko amakimbirane, kubuza ubwikorezi bwo mu kirere bwarushijeho kwiyongera ku ngorane zabakora palladium. Ku isi hose, Palladium igenda ikoreshwa mu gutanga isegonda ihuza ibinyabiziga kugirango igabanye imyuka yangiza iva kuri moteri cyangwa mayeri.

Uburusiya na Ukraine nibihugu byingenzi byisi byisi, bigarurira byinshi ku isoko ryisi yose. Dukurikije ubushishozi buzaza bwemewe na Esmar, muri 2031, umubare w'ikigo cy'imisoro buri mwaka w'ishyamba ku isi nta gaciro uzaba 6%, kandi ibihugu byombi birashobora kwigarurira umwanya w'ingenzi. Ariko, urebye uko ibintu bimeze ubu, ibyateganijwe haruguru birashobora guhinduka cyane. Muri iki kiganiro, tuzaganira ku burebure ingaruka ziteganijwe z'iri ndwara ku nganda z'ingenzi zamadolari aho ishyano z'isi zoherejwe, kimwe n'ibitekerezo ku byitezeho ingaruka ku mishinga y'ingenzi hamwe n'ihindagurika ry'ibiciro.

Ibibazo biri mu nganda z'ikoranabuhanga / amakuru bishobora kwangiza inyungu z'Amerika n'Uburayi.

Ukraine, nk'ihuriro nyamukuru ry'ubwubatsi n'ikoranabuhanga, rifatwa nk'igice gifite amafaranga yinjiza na serivisi za gatatu na offshore. Kubwibyo, Uburusiya bwateye abafatanyabikorwa bahoze ari Leta Zunze Ubumwe z'Abasoviyeti bazahindurwa inyungu z'impanga nyinshi - cyane cyane muri Amerika n'Uburayi.

Iyi guhagarika serivisi zisumba rishobora kugira ingaruka ku bintu bitatu by'ingenzi: Ibigo byakazi mu buryo butaziguye mu buryo butaziguye ku batanga serivisi muri Ukraine; Gutanga akazi kumasosiyete mubihugu nko mu Buhinde, byongerera ubushobozi ubushobozi bwabo bwo kohereza umutungo wa Ukraine, kandi imishinga ifite ibigo bya serivisi byintambara bigizwe nabakozi ba Zone.

Ibintu bidasanzwe byisi bikoreshwa cyane mubice byingenzi bya elegitoroniki nka terefone zubwenge, kamera ya digitale, igenzura rya mudasobwa, igenzura rya mudasobwa, igenamigambi rya terefone, ishimangira kurushaho akamaro k'ibintu byisi bidasanzwe.

Iyi ntambara yateje gushidikanya kandi bidahangayikishije bidashidikanywaho gusa mu kubungabunga impano gusa, ahubwo no mu gukora ibikoresho fatizo mu ikoranabuhanga mu makuru (IT) n'itumanaho. Urugero, ifasi ya Ukraine i Donbass ikungahaye ku mutungo kamere, icy'ingenzi muri byo ni amabuye y'agaciro ya Lithitkisitani akwirakwizwa ahanini muri Leta ya Zuta na Polokhivs yo mu karere ka Simbara. Kugeza ubu, gucukura amabuye y'agaciro muri utwo turere twahagaritse, bishobora gutera ihindagurika ryibiciro bidasanzwe byisi muri kano karere.

Amafaranga yo kwiyongera kwisi yose yatumye ibiciro byisi bidasanzwe.

Urebye urugero rwo hejuru rw'abantu batezwe n'intambara, ibihugu byose byashyizeho umwete wo gushimangira ubushobozi bw'ingabo z'igihugu n'ubushobozi bwa gisirikare, cyane cyane mu turere two mu ruhare rw'Uburusiya. Urugero, muri Gashyantare 2022, Ubudage bwatangaje ko byatanga amayeri 100 z'amayero (miliyari 113 z'amadolari y'Amerika) kugira ngo ashyire mu kigega cyitwa intwaro zidasanzwe kugira ngo amafaranga ahinekere.

Iterambere rizagira ingaruka zikomeye ku isi ingana n'imyitozo ngororamubiri. Ingero zavuzwe haruguru zishimangira kwiyemeza kw'igihugu kugira ngo zikomeze ingufu z'ingabo z'igihugu, kandi zuzuza amasezerano menshi y'ingenzi, harimo amasezerano y'ibyuma bigezweho n'amabuye y'agaciro yo mu majyaruguru nka Neodymium na Praseodmium.

Hagati aho, Amerika yiteguye kurinda akarere ka NATO ukomoka mu Burusiya. N'ubwo itazakoresha ingabo ku butaka bw'Uburusiya, batangaje ko yahisemo kurengera buri santimetero z'ubutaka aho ingabo zikeneye koherezwa. Kubwibyo, gutanga ingengo yimari yingabo birashobora kwiyongera, bizamura cyane igiciro cyibiciro byisi .Dedyed muri Sonsar, Insanganyamatsiko ya Laser, Itumanaho na sisitemu.

Ingaruka ku nganda zikurikira ku isi zishobora kuba mbi?

Inganda za Secokonductor kwisi yose, ziteganijwe guhindukirira hagati ya 2022, zizahura nibibazo bikomeye kubera guhangana hagati y'Uburusiya na Ukraine. Nkuko abatanga urufunguzo rwibigize bikenewe kubikorwa bya semiconductor, iri rushanwa rigaragara rishobora gutuma imbogamizi yo gukora no kubura ibiciro, kimwe nibiciro birushijeho kwiyongera.

Kuberako chimip ya semiconductor ikoreshwa cyane mubicuruzwa bitandukanye bya elegitoroniki, ntabwo bitangaje kuba no kwiyongera gato kumakimbirane bizazana urunigi rwo gutanga. Nk'uko byatangazwa na raporo y'isoko ry'ejo hazaza, muri 2030, inganda za Chip ku isi zizerekana urugero rw'amajyambere ya buri mwaka 5.6%. Urunigi rwitanga rwa Semiconductor rugizwe na ecosystem igoye, shyiramo abakora baturutse mu turere dutandukanye batanga ibikoresho bibisi, ibikoresho, ikoranabuhanga, ikoranabuhanga hamwe nibisubizo bipakira. Mubyongeyeho, harimo kandi abatanga ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki. Ndetse n'igitambara gito mu munyururu wose kizabyara ifuro, kizagira ingaruka kuri buri mufatanyabikorwa.

Niba intambara ihabiruye, hashobora kubaho ifaranga rikomeye mu nganda za Secokonductor ku isi. Ibigo bizatangira kurinda inyungu zabo bwite no kubika umubare munini wa semiconductor. Amaherezo, ibi bizaganisha kubibazo rusange byabarura. Ariko ikintu kimwe gikwiye kwemeza nuko ibibazo amaherezo bishobora kugabanurwa. Kubwuburyo rusange bwisoko hamwe nigiciro gihamye inganda za semiconductor, ni inkuru nziza.

Inganda zitwara ibinyabiziga ku isi zishobora guhura no kurwanya imbaraga.

Inganda z'imodoka ku isi zishobora kumva ingaruka zikomeye muri aya makimbirane, cyane cyane mu Burayi. Ku isi hose, abakora barimo kwibanda ku kugena urugero rw'iyi ntambara yo gutanga isi yose. Ishyana ryisi ryisi nka Neodymium, PysPosium na Dysprosium mubisanzwe ikoreshwa nka magnesi zihoraho zo gutanga urumuri, ibintu byoroshye kandi byiza kandi byiza bishobora gutanga umusaruro udahagije.

Nk'uko isesengura ry'isesengura ribitangaza, inganda z'imodoka zo mu Burayi zizagira ingaruka zikomeye kubera guhagarika ingwate zo gutanga imodoka muri Ukraine n'Uburusiya. Kuva mu mpera za Gashyantare 2022, amasosiyete menshi yimodoka yisi yose yahagaritse ibicuruzwa byoherejwe nabacuruzi baho kubafatanyabikorwa b'Uburusiya. Byongeye kandi, abakora imodoka bamwe barimo guhagarika ibikorwa byumusaruro kugirango bahagarike iki.

Ku ya 28 Gashyantare, 2022, Volktwagen, uruganda rukora imodoka mu Budage, rwatangaje ko rwahisemo guhagarika umusaruro mu nganda ebyiri z'amashanyarazi mu cyumweru cyose kuko igitero cyahungabanye itangwa ry'ibikoresho. Uruganda rukora imodoka rwafashe icyemezo cyo guhagarika umusaruro mu ruganda rwa Zvico na Dresden. Mu bindi bice, kohereza insinga byarahagaritswe bikomeye. Byongeye kandi, itangwa ryimiterere yisi idasanzwe harimo na neodymium na dysproim birashobora kugira ingaruka. 80% by'ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi bakoresha iyi byuma byombi kugirango bafate moteri ya magnet ihoraho.

Intambara muri Ukraine nayo irashobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku isi ya bateri z'imodoka z'amashanyarazi, kuko Ukraine aricyo cya gatatu kinini cya Nikel na Aluminium ari ngombwa mu gukora ibinyabiziga n'ibice by'imodoka. Byongeye kandi, umunyamerika yakozwe muri Ukraine kuri bo 70% ya neon asabwa ku isi yose n'ibindi bigize imodoka nshya muri Amerika yazamutse ku burebure bushya. Iyi mibare irashobora kuba hejuru yuyu mwaka.

Ikibazo kizagira ingaruka ku ishoramari ry'ubucuruzi rya zahabu?

Gutanga politiki hagati ya Ukraine n'Uburusiya byateje impungenge n'inganda zikomeye mu nganda zikomeye. Ariko, iyo bibaye ingaruka ku giciro cya zahabu, ibintu biratandukanye. Uburusiya ni bwa gatatu producer wa zahabu cyane ku isi, hamwe no kubahiriza buri mwaka toni zirenga 33.

Raporo yerekana ko nko mu cyumweru cya nyuma cyo ku ya 20 Gashyantare, nk'uko abashoramari bashaka gutandukanya ishoramari ryabo mu mutungo utekanye, igiciro cya zahabu cyaramutse cyane. Biravugwa ko igiciro cya zahabu cya SHAKA 0.3% kugeza 1912.40 Amadorari y'Amerika kuri OUNCE, mugihe igiciro cya zahabu cyo muri Amerika kizamuka 19.2% kugeza 1913.20 Amadorari y'Amerika. Ibi birerekana ko abashoramari bafite ibyiringiro byinshi kubikorwa byiki cyuma cyiza mugihe cyibibazo.

Birashobora kuvugwa ko gukoresha iherezo rya zahabu ari ugukora ibicuruzwa bya elegitoroniki. Numuyobora ukora neza akoreshwa mubufatanye, guhuza umubano, guhinduranya, gusudira ingingo, guhuza insinga no guhuza imirongo. Naho ingaruka nyazo yikibazo, ntibisobanutse niba hazabaho ingaruka ndende. Ariko nkuko abashoramari bashaka gushora imari yabo ku ruhande rwabo ku ruhande rumwe, biteganijwe ko hazabaho amakimbirane mu gihe gito, cyane cyane hagati y'amashyaka arwana.

Urebye imiterere idahwitse yamakimbirane iriho, biragoye guhanura icyerekezo cyiterambere ryinganda zidasanzwe z'isi. Urebye mu nzira y'iterambere iriho ubu, bisa nkaho ubukungu bwisoko ryisi yose bugana mu bushobozi burebure bwo gukemura amashanyarazi n'ibyuma bidasanzwe, kandi iminyururu idasanzwe, kandi imbaraga zingenzi zidasanzwe zizahagarikwa mugihe gito.

Isi yageze ku mwanya ukomeye. Nyuma ya Coronavirus (Covid-19) icyorezo muri 2019, igihe ibintu byari bitangiye gusanzwe, abayobozi ba politiki baboneyeho umwanya wo gutangira isano na politiki y'amavuko. Kugirango wirinde iyi mikino yamashanyarazi, abakora bakora ibishoboka byose kugirango barengere urunigi ruriho no guhagarika umusaruro aho bikenewe. Cyangwa kugabanya amasezerano yo gukwirakwiza hamwe nababuranyi barwana.

Mugihe kimwe, abasesengura biteze urumuri rwicyizere. Nubwo ibibuza gutanga uburusiya na Ukraine bishobora gutsinda, haracyari akarere gakomeye aho abakora bashaka gutwika ikirenge mu Bushinwa. Urebye gukoreshwa cyane ibyuma n'ibikoresho bibisi muri iki gihugu kinini cya Aziya y'Iburasirazuba, ibibujijwe abantu bumva bishobora gushyirwa mu bikorwa. Ibintu byose biterwa nuburyo abayobozi b'ibihugu byombi bikemura aya makimbirane.

Ab Shaikhmahmud niwo mwanditsi wibirimo numwanditsi wubushishozi bwisoko ryazaza, ubushakashatsi ku isoko no kugisha inama sosiyete yubushakashatsi ku isoko yemejwe na Esmar.