Mugihe amakimbirane hagati ya Ukraine n'Uburusiya akomeje, igiciro cy'ubutaka budasanzwe buzamuka.

Icyongereza: Abizer Shaikhmahmud, Ubushishozi bw'isoko

Mu gihe ikibazo cyo gutanga amasoko cyatewe n'icyorezo cya COVID-19 kitigeze gikira, umuryango mpuzamahanga watangije intambara y’Uburusiya na Ukraine. Mu rwego rwo kuzamuka kw’ibiciro nk’ikibazo gihangayikishije, iki kibazo gishobora kurenga ibiciro bya lisansi, harimo n’inganda nk’ifumbire, ibiryo n’amabuye y'agaciro.

Kuva muri zahabu kugeza palladium, inganda zidasanzwe zisi mubihugu byombi ndetse nisi yose ishobora guhura nikirere kibi. Uburusiya bushobora guhura n’igitutu kinini kugira ngo bwuzuze 45% by’ibicuruzwa bya palladium ku isi, kubera ko inganda zimaze kugira ibibazo kandi icyifuzo kirenze icyatanzwe. Byongeye kandi, kuva amakimbirane abuzwa, ubwikorezi bwo mu kirere bwarushijeho gukaza umurego ingorane za palladium. Kwisi yose, Palladium irakoreshwa cyane mukubyara moteri ya catalitike ihindura kugirango igabanye imyuka yangiza ituruka kuri moteri ya peteroli cyangwa mazutu.

Uburusiya na Ukraine ni ibihugu by’ingenzi bidasanzwe ku isi, bifite uruhare runini ku isoko ry’isi. Dukurikije uko ejo hazaza h’isoko ryemejwe na esomar, mu 2031, umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’umwaka w’isoko ry’icyuma ku isi ridasanzwe rizaba 6%, kandi ibihugu byombi bishobora gufata umwanya w’ingenzi. Ariko, urebye uko ibintu bimeze ubu, ibyavuzwe haruguru birashobora guhinduka cyane. Muri iki kiganiro, Tuzaganira ku buryo bwimbitse ingaruka ziteganijwe z’uru rugamba ku nganda z’ibanze zikoreshwa aho ubutare budasanzwe bwoherezwa, hamwe n’ibitekerezo ku ngaruka ziteganijwe ku mishinga y’ingenzi n’imihindagurikire y’ibiciro.

Ibibazo mubikorwa byubwubatsi / amakuru yikoranabuhanga birashobora kwangiza inyungu z’Amerika n'Uburayi.

Ukraine, nk'ihuriro rikuru ry’ubuhanga n’ikoranabuhanga mu ikoranabuhanga, rifatwa nkakarere gafite inyungu ziva mu mahanga no hanze y’izindi serivisi. Kubera iyo mpamvu, igitero cy’Uburusiya ku bafatanyabikorwa b’icyahoze ari Leta Zunze Ubumwe z'Abasoviyeti, byanze bikunze kizagira ingaruka ku nyungu z’amashyaka menshi-cyane cyane Amerika n'Uburayi.

Ihagarikwa rya serivisi zisi rishobora kugira ingaruka kubintu bitatu byingenzi: ibigo bitanga ibikorwa byakazi kubatanga serivisi muri Ukraine yose; Gutanga akazi ku masosiyete yo mu bihugu nk'Ubuhinde, yongerera ubushobozi mu kohereza umutungo ukomoka muri Ukraine, hamwe n'ibigo bifite ibigo bishinzwe ubucuruzi ku isi bigizwe n'abakozi bo mu karere k'intambara.

Ibintu bidasanzwe byisi bikoreshwa cyane mubice byingenzi bya elegitoronike nka terefone zifite ubwenge, kamera ya digitale, disiki zikomeye za mudasobwa, amatara ya fluorescent n'amatara ya LED, monitor ya mudasobwa, televiziyo ya televiziyo hamwe na ecran ya elegitoronike, ibyo bikaba bishimangira akamaro k'ibintu bidasanzwe by'isi.

Iyi ntambara yateje impungenge zidashidikanywaho n’impungenge zikomeye mu gushaka impano gusa, ahubwo no mu gukora ibikoresho fatizo by’ikoranabuhanga mu itumanaho (IT) n’ibikorwa remezo by’itumanaho. Kurugero, agace ka Ukraine kagabanijwe muri Donbass gakungahaye ku mutungo kamere, icy'ingenzi muri byo ni lithium. Ibirombe bya Litiyumu bikwirakwizwa cyane muri Kruta Balka yo muri leta ya Zaporizhzhia, agace ka Shevchenkivse gacukurwa na Dontesk hamwe n’ubucukuzi bwa polokhivsk bwo mu gace ka Dobra ka Kirovohrad. Kugeza ubu, ibikorwa by'ubucukuzi bw'amabuye y'agaciro muri utwo turere byarahagaze, ibyo bikaba bishobora gutuma habaho ihindagurika rikomeye ry'ibiciro by'ibyuma bidasanzwe by'isi muri kariya gace.

Ubwiyongere bw'amafaranga akoreshwa mu kwirwanaho ku isi bwatumye izamuka ry’ibiciro by’isi bidasanzwe.

Urebye urwego rudashidikanywaho rwatewe n’intambara, ibihugu byo ku isi birashyira ingufu mu kongera ingufu z’ingabo z’igihugu ndetse n’ubushobozi bwa gisirikare, cyane cyane mu turere two mu Burusiya. Urugero, muri Gashyantare 2022, Ubudage bwatangaje ko buzatanga miliyari 100 z'amayero (miliyari 113 z'amadolari y'Amerika) kugira ngo hashyizweho ikigega kidasanzwe cy’ingabo kugira ngo amafaranga y’ingabo akoreshe hejuru ya 2% ya GDP.

Iterambere rizagira ingaruka zikomeye kubikorwa bidasanzwe byisi no kubiciro. Izi ngamba zavuzwe haruguru zirashimangira kandi ubushake bw’igihugu mu gukomeza ingabo zikomeye z’ingabo z’igihugu, kandi zikuzuza ibintu byinshi by’ingenzi byashize mu bihe byashize, harimo n’amasezerano yagiranye n’amabuye y’amabuye y’amabuye y’amajyaruguru ya Ositaraliya, mu mwaka wa 2019 yo gukoresha ubutare budasanzwe nka neodymium na praseodymium.

Hagati aho, Amerika yiteguye kurinda akarere kayo ka NATO ibitero by’Uburusiya. Nubwo itohereza ingabo ku butaka bw’Uburusiya, guverinoma yatangaje ko yafashe icyemezo cyo kurinda buri santimetero y’ubutaka aho hakenewe koherezwa ingabo. Kubwibyo, itangwa ryingengo yimari yingabo irashobora kwiyongera, ibyo bikazamura cyane igiciro cyibikoresho bidasanzwe byubutaka. Byoherejwe muri sonar, indorerwamo zo kureba nijoro, laser rangefinder, itumanaho nubuyobozi hamwe nubundi buryo.

Ingaruka ku nganda za semiconductor ku isi zishobora kuba mbi kurushaho?

Inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi ku isi, biteganijwe ko zizahinduka hagati ya 2022, zizahura n’ibibazo bikomeye kubera guhangana hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine. Nkumuntu wingenzi utanga ibice bikenerwa mu gukora semiconductor, iri rushanwa rigaragara rishobora kuganisha ku kugabanya ibicuruzwa no kubura ibicuruzwa, ndetse no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro byinshi.

Kubera ko ibyuma bya semiconductor bikoreshwa cyane mubicuruzwa bitandukanye bya elegitoroniki byabaguzi, ntibitangaje ko no kwiyongera gake kwamakimbirane bizazana urwego rwose rutanga akajagari. Nk’uko raporo y’igihe kizaza ibiteganya ku isoko, mu 2030, inganda za chip semiconductor ku isi zizerekana umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bwa buri mwaka wa 5.6%. Urunani rwose rutanga urunani rugizwe na urusobe rwibinyabuzima bigoye, Harimo abakora ibicuruzwa baturutse mu turere dutandukanye batanga ibikoresho fatizo bitandukanye, ibikoresho, ikoranabuhanga ryo gukora nibisubizo bipakira. Mubyongeyeho, ikubiyemo kandi abagabuzi hamwe n’abakora ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki. Ndetse n'akantu gato mumurongo wose bizana ifuro, bizagira ingaruka kuri buri wese mubifitemo uruhare.

Niba intambara ikabije, hashobora kubaho ifaranga rikomeye mu nganda zikoresha igice cya kabiri. Ibigo bizatangira kurengera inyungu zabo bwite no guhunika umubare munini wa chipondictor. Amaherezo, ibi bizaganisha kubura muri rusange kubarura. Ariko ikintu kimwe gikwiye kwemezwa nuko amaherezo ibibazo bishobora kugabanuka. Kubwiterambere rusange ryisoko hamwe nigiciro gihamye cyinganda ziciriritse, Ninkuru nziza.

Inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi ku isi zishobora guhangana n’ingamba zikomeye.

Inganda z’imodoka ku isi zishobora kumva ingaruka zikomeye z’aya makimbirane, cyane cyane mu Burayi. Kw'isi yose, abayikora baribanda ku kumenya urugero rw'iyi ntambara yo gutanga amasoko ku isi. Ubutaka budakunze kuboneka nka neodymium, praseodymium na dysprosium mubusanzwe bikoreshwa nka magnesi zihoraho mugukora moteri yumucyo, yoroheje kandi ikora neza, ishobora gutuma itangwa ridahagije.

Nk’uko isesengura ribigaragaza, uruganda rw’imodoka rw’i Burayi ruzagira ingaruka zikomeye kubera ihagarikwa ry’ibinyabiziga muri Ukraine no mu Burusiya. Kuva mu mpera za Gashyantare 2022, amasosiyete menshi y’imodoka ku isi yahagaritse ibicuruzwa byoherejwe n’abacuruzi baho ku bafatanyabikorwa b’Uburusiya. Byongeye kandi, bamwe mubakora ibinyabiziga bahagarika ibikorwa byumusaruro kugirango bahoshe uku gukomera.

Ku ya 28 Gashyantare 2022, Volkswagen, uruganda rukora amamodoka mu Budage, yatangaje ko rwafashe icyemezo cyo guhagarika umusaruro mu nganda ebyiri z’amashanyarazi icyumweru cyose kuko igitero cyahungabanije itangwa ry’ibicuruzwa. Uruganda rukora amamodoka rwahisemo guhagarika umusaruro mu ruganda rwa Zvico no mu ruganda rwa Dresden. Mubindi bice, ihererekanyabubasha ryahagaritswe cyane. Byongeye kandi, itangwa ryibyuma bidasanzwe byubutaka birimo neodymium na dysprosium nabyo birashobora kugira ingaruka. 80% by'imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi zikoresha ibyo byuma byombi kugirango zikore moteri ihoraho.

Intambara yo muri Ukraine irashobora kandi kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku musaruro w’amashanyarazi y’amashanyarazi ku isi, kubera ko Ukraine n’igihugu cya gatatu mu gukora nikel na aluminiyumu ku isi, kandi ibyo bintu byombi by’agaciro birakenewe mu gukora bateri n’ibice by’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi. Byongeye kandi, neon ikorerwa muri Ukraine ihwanye na 70% bya neon isabwa kuri chip ku isi ndetse nibindi bikoresho, bimaze kubura. Kubera iyo mpamvu, igiciro cyo kugurisha cy’imodoka nshya muri Amerika cyazamutse kigera kuri an uburebure bushya budasanzwe. Uyu mubare urashobora kuba mwinshi muri uyu mwaka.

Ikibazo kizagira ingaruka ku ishoramari ryubucuruzi rya zahabu?

Ihagarikwa rya politiki hagati ya Ukraine n'Uburusiya ryateje impungenge n'impungenge zikomeye mu nganda zikomeye. Ariko, iyo bigeze ku ngaruka ku giciro cya zahabu, ibintu biratandukanye. Uburusiya n’igihugu cya gatatu mu bihugu bitanga zahabu ku isi, buri mwaka umusaruro wa toni zirenga 330.

Raporo yerekana ko guhera mu cyumweru gishize cya Gashyantare 2022, mu gihe abashoramari bashaka gutandukanya ishoramari mu mutungo utekanye, igiciro cya zahabu cyazamutse cyane. Biravugwa ko igiciro cya zahabu cyazamutseho 0.3% kigera kuri 1912.40 US $ kuri buri une, mu gihe biteganijwe ko igiciro cy’izahabu muri Amerika kizazamuka 0.2% kigera ku 1913.20 US $ kuri buri une. Ibi birerekana ko abashoramari bafite icyizere cyinshi ku mikorere yiki cyuma cyagaciro mugihe cyibibazo.

Birashobora kuvugwa ko ikoreshwa ryanyuma rya zahabu ari ugukora ibicuruzwa bya elegitoroniki. Numuyoboro mwiza ukoreshwa mubihuza, guhuza amakuru, guhinduranya, gusudira, guhuza insinga no guhuza imirongo. Ku bijyanye n'ingaruka nyazo z'ihungabana, ntibisobanutse niba hari ingaruka z'igihe kirekire. Ariko mugihe abashoramari bashaka guhindura ishoramari ryabo kuruhande rutabogamye, Biteganijwe ko hazabaho amakimbirane mugihe gito, cyane cyane hagati yimpande zirwana.

Urebye imiterere idahindagurika cyane yamakimbirane arimo, biragoye guhanura icyerekezo cyiterambere ryinganda zidasanzwe zisi. Urebye inzira yiterambere iriho, birasa nkaho byanze bikunze ubukungu bwisoko ryisi yose bugana mubukungu bwigihe kirekire mugukora amabuye y'agaciro hamwe nubutaka budasanzwe, kandi imiyoboro nyamukuru yo gutanga ningufu bizahagarikwa mugihe gito.

Isi igeze mugihe gikomeye. Nyuma y’icyorezo cya coronavirus (Covid-19) mu 2019, igihe ibintu byari bitangiye kuba ibintu, abayobozi ba politiki baboneyeho umwanya wo kongera gutangira isano na politiki y’ubutegetsi. Mu rwego rwo kwirinda iyi mikino y’ingufu, abayikora bakora ibishoboka byose kugirango barinde urwego rutangwa kandi bahagarike umusaruro aho bibaye ngombwa. Cyangwa bagabanye amasezerano yo kugabana n’impande zirwana.

Muri icyo gihe, abasesenguzi biteze urumuri rw'icyizere. Nubwo ibicuruzwa bitangwa n’Uburusiya na Ukraine bishobora gutsinda, haracyari akarere gakomeye aho ababikora bashaka gukandagiza ikirenge mu Bushinwa. Urebye gukoresha cyane amabuye y'agaciro n'ibikoresho fatizo muri iki gihugu kinini cyo muri Aziya y'Uburasirazuba, imbogamizi abantu bumva zishobora guhagarikwa. Abakora iburayi barashobora kongera gusinya amasezerano yo gutanga no kugabura. Ibintu byose biterwa nuburyo abayobozi b’ibihugu byombi bakemura aya makimbirane.

Ab Shaikhmahmud ni umwanditsi wibirimo akaba n'umwanditsi wa Future Market Insights, ubushakashatsi ku isoko hamwe n’isosiyete ikora ubushakashatsi ku isoko yemejwe na esomar.